Who is elected President?

I know I wrote this some time ago but I have had so many hits on this blog I decided to repost it again.  I will remove the older post.

The last time, I did not really explain why I was interested in this topic.  I have heard it before that it is historically against those who are already in office to be elected to President.  So I wanted to verify that point.  It holds true.  Only three people have ever been elected President from being an elected sitting Senator, Representative, or Governor.  It just doesn’t happen.  So the odds are against McCain, Clinton, Obama, Dodd, Biden, Hunter, Paul, and more.  The odds are in favor of those who have been out of office for some time.  That tends to point an affirmative finger at Thompson, Romney, Huckabee, Gilmore, and others.  I am not trying to come out for one group or another just wanted to know the historical trend.

I finally got around to doing some homework.  I was curious to how many senators in the past have made it to become the President of the United States.  Only 2 have ever succeeded to become President while still a Senator; John Kennedy and Warren Harding.

Only one representative made it to become President while still a representative: James Garfield.

Looking at these three individuals all three died while in the office as President. Obama, Clinton, and McCain do not appear to have odds in their favor for becoming President and living out their term.

I went on to do some more homework.  We are on our 43rd President.  Five of those Presidents were not elected to office: Chester Arthur, Millard Fillmore, Gerald Ford, Andrew Johnson, and John Tyler.  That drops our number of elected Presidents to 38.

Looking at those 38 Presidents, 13 served in the Senate previously.  Two of those Senators became President while acting as Vice President: Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman.  We do not know if they would have been elected President in their own right had they not served as President before.  The history of Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson does not appear that they would have ever become President or would have sought to.  Accordingly, only 34.2% (13 of 38) of elected Presidents have served previously as a Senator.  If you were to rule out Truman and Johnson, that would give us 30.6% (11 of 36).  Here is the time frame for those Senators who would become elected President (Truman and Johnson at their elected date).  Andrew Johnson and John Tyler also served as a Senator, but were never elected to the Presidency.

Senators elected to the Presidency
John Kennedy
Warren Harding
Benjamin Harrison – 2 years
Andrew Jackson – 4 years
Lyndon Johnson – 4 years
Harry Truman – 4 years
Martin Van Buren – 9 years
Franklin Pierce – 11 years
James Buchanan – 12 years
William Henry Harrison – 13 years
Richard Nixon – 16 years
John Quincy Adams – 17 years
James Monroe – 23 years

Looking at elected President’s who entered the Presidency within 10 years of their leaving the Senate we have only 18.4% (7 of 38).

Looking back at the 38 Presidents, 14 of them served in the US House of Representatives.  The same case applies here to Lyndon Johnson as it did above in the Senator category.  36.8% (14 of 38) of elected Presidents served in the US House of Representatives.  If you exclude Johnson, 35.1% (13 of 37).  I have listed below the time frame for people entering the Presidency after serving in the House of Representatives.  Millard Fillmore, Gerald Ford, Andrew Johnson, and John Tyler served as members of the House but were not elected President.  Johnson is listed at his elected date.

US Representatives elected to Presidency
James Garfield
William McKinley – 6 years
James Polk – 6 years
John Kennedy – 8 years
Rutherford Hayes – 10 years
Abraham Lincoln – 12 years
James Madison – 12 years
Lyndon Johnson – 16 years
Franklin Pierce – 16 years
George H W Bush – 18 years
Richard Nixon – 19 years
William Harrison – 22 years
James Buchanan – 26 years
Andrew Jackson – 32 years

Looking at elected President’s who entered the Presidency within 10 years of their leaving the House we have only 10.5% (4 of 38).  Looking at the historical information, it has been a good while since anyone has gone from the House to the President.  Those on the list that are more recent had other positions between the House and Presidency.  Johnson, Nixon and GHW Bush were Vice President and Kennedy served as a Senator.

Previous Presidents who served as an elected Governor of a state are the next order of criteria.  Only two Presidents were sitting elected Governors when elected: Rutherford Hayes and Woodrow Wilson.  There are a few who were appointed governors or military governors of territories but I did not include those.  Two governors would become President and later elected in their own right: Calvin Coolidge and Theodore Roosevelt.  Calvin Coolidge most likely would never have become President.  Theodore Roosevelt may have.  At any rate, 39.5% (15 of 38) of Presidents were Governors.  If you remove Roosevelt and Coolidge, 36.1% (13 of 36).  Here is the timeline of Governors who would become President later.  John Tyler also served as a Governor but was not elected President.  Coolidge and T Roosevelt are listed at their elected dates.

Elected Governors elected to the Presidency
Rutherford Hayes
Franklin Roosevelt
Woodrow Wilson
George W Bush – 1 year
Grover Cleveland – 1 year
Bill Clinton – 1 year
William McKinley – 1 year
Jimmy Carter – 3 years
Calvin Coolidge – 4 years
James Polk – 4 years
Theodore Roosevelt – 5 years
James Monroe – 6 years
Ronald Reagan – 6 years
Martin Van Buren – 8 years
Thomas Jefferson – 22 years

Accordingly,
34.2% of Presidents served in the Senate.
36.8% of Presidents served in the House.
39.5% of Presidents served as an elected Governor

For other information, John Adams, George H W Bush, Thomas Jefferson, and Martin Van Buren went directly to become President after their Vice Presidency.  Richard Nixon is the only one who would have time off before becoming President.  This is not a good indicator, only one person ever went from Vice President to President of their own accord.

Here is a list of all President’s and their positions before the Presidency.

Washington – Virginia House of Burgesses, Continental Congress, Commander-in-Chief of Continental Army, President of Constitutional Convention

J Adams – Continental Congress, Minister to Netherlands, Minister to Great Britain, Vice President

Jefferson – Governor, Minister to France, Secretary of State, Vice President

Madison – Continental Congress, Representative from Virginia, Secretary of State

Monroe – Continental Congress, Senator, Minister to Great Britain, Governor, Secretary of State, Secretary of War

JQ Adams – Minister to Netherlands, Minister to Prussia, Senator, Minister to Russia, Minister to Britain, Secretary of State

Jackson – Representative, Military Governor, Senator

Van Buren – Senator, Governor, Secretary of State, Minister to Britain, Vice President

W Harrison – Appointed Governor, Representative, Senator, Minister to Colombia

Tyler – Representative, Governor, Senator, Vice President

Polk – Representative, Governor

Taylor – No previous office

Fillmore – Representative, State Comptroller, Vice President

Pierce – Representative, Senator

Buchanan – Representative, Minister to Russia, Senator, Secretary of State, Minister to Britain

Lincoln – Representative

A Johnson – Representative, Governor, Senator, Vice President

Grant – Army General

Hayes – Representative, Governor

Garfield – Representative

Arthur – No previous office

Cleveland – Mayor, Governor

B Harrison – Senator

Cleveland – Mayor, Governor, President

McKinley – Representative, Governor

T Roosevelt – Governor, Vice President

Taft – Solicitor General, Judge, Secretary of War, Appointed Governor

Wilson – Governor

Harding – Lieutenant Governor, Senator

Coolidge – Lieutenant Governor, Governor, Vice President

Hoover – Secretary of Commerce

F Roosevelt – Governor

Truman – Senator, Vice President

Eisenhower – Army Chief of Staff, Allied Supreme Commander

Kennedy – Representative, Senator

L Johnson – Representative, Senator, Vice President

Nixon – Representative, Senator, Vice President

Ford – Representative, Vice President

Carter – Governor

Reagan – Governor

G H W Bush – US Ambassador to UN, Representative, Director of CIA, Vice President

Clinton – Attorney General of Arkansas, Governor

G W Bush – Governor

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One thought on “Who is elected President?

  1. you know, this is interesting.  i love deep breakdowns like this.  but i guess it\’s possible to find a way why anyone being elected would be the first to do it, if you know what i\’m saying.  i wonder what the problem is that people have with electing sitting senators.  perhaps they are a little turned off to the idea of a candidate keeping one foot in a "safety office."  i know i\’ve always been sort of bothered by that.  it just makes me feel that those running aren\’t really concerned about doing one particular job, but rather that they\’ll just take whatever they can get.  i don\’t like politicians who hedge their bets, so to speak.  actually, if i had my way, i would make it so that anyone who ever held the office of senator would automatically be disqualified from becoming president…ever!  that would prevent many of these yahoo\’s from using the office as nothing but a stepping stone to POTUS.  all this just confirms my theory (not all that profound, but true none the less in my opinion) that politicians are worried about one thing above all else: staying politicians. 

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